Background
China has sometimes made military or political statements using culturally important occasions throughout history. For example, right before the Lunar New Year in 1955, the PLA attacked the Yijiangshan Islands close to Taiwan. Similarly, during important occasions, China has conducted military exercises and patrols close to Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea.
As China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stepped up its military patrols and exercises surrounding Taiwan over the 2025 Lunar New Year vacation, cross-strait tensions sharply rose. Usually a time for family get-togethers and festivities, this year witnessed more military action reflecting both the strategic goals of the PLA and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region.
In China, Taiwan, and many East Asian nations, the Lunar New Year – also called the Spring Festival – is the most important traditional festival. The time is known for family get-togethers, cultural events, and national pride. Traditionally, this period has been used as military and political signaling considering the weakened China-Taiwan relations.
Relationships between China and Taiwan have been strained since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when the vanquished Nationalist government withdrew to Taiwan. China views Taiwan as a separatist province and has always supported reunification, maintaining a readiness to use force if necessary. With its government, military, and constitution, Taiwan does, however, run essentially as a de facto sovereign state.
China has increased its military presence surrounding Taiwan in recent years, usually doing air and naval drills. These manoeuvres are widely seen as attempts to intimidate Taiwan and deter formal independence efforts. Particularly aggressive military operations around the 2025 Lunar New Year signified a notable change in China’s regional policy.
PLA Activities over the Lunar New Year 2025
The Eastern Theatre Command of the PLA sent several waves of naval and aviation units for combat alert patrols and training exercises close to Taiwan between Chinese New Year’s Eve on January 28 and the Lantern Festival on February 12. Among these activities were regular sorties of J-10C fighter planes and H-6K bombers. Especially, the PLA Navy cruiser Huaibei conducted live-fire exercises and, on February 12, sent Lunar New Year wishes via radio to the Taiwanese vessel Yi Yang.
Earlier, on January 2, Taiwan’s defence ministry announced the first Chinese “combat patrol” of the year, with 22 Chinese military aircraft – including J-16 fighter jets – operating in Taiwan’s northern, western, south-western, and eastern airspace. Taiwan deployed forces to monitor the situation closely.
Strategic Connotations
The timing and kind of these military activities at a season of cultural relevance point to a deliberate attempt by the PLA to establish its presence and convey its will to Taiwan. China emphasizes its strategic goals by doing exercises throughout the Lunar New Year, therefore transcending conventional holiday customs.
Strategic Intimidations – The showcase of military readiness that seeks to discourage Taiwan from acting in ways seen as toward official independence.
Combining military displays with symbolic gestures – such as distributing holiday greetings during patrols – helps to provide a picture of shared cultural legacy while also supporting China’s territorial claims.
Military operations carried out over a vacation have two purposes: they create psychological pressure and preserve some surprise factor. Although enemies could usually change their military stance over holidays, China’s higher activity guarantees a strategic edge.
Regional and Global Context
The PLA’s increased operations around Taiwan are occurring amid broader regional tensions, as China continues to expand its military presence in the Pacific, including recent live-fire drills close to Australia and New Zealand that caused commercial flights to be rerouted. The lack of previous notice for such exercises has generated questions about China’s increasing aggressiveness and consequences for regional security.
Furthermore adding another level of complication to the security scene in the Asia-Pacific is growing military cooperation between China and Russia – shown in combined drills close to US friends. This strategic alliance immediately questions US military supremacy in the area, which forces Washington to tighten relationships with regional allies such as Japan and the Philippines.
While tensions are high, a full-scale invasion or war remains unlikely in the immediate future for several reasons:
Any direct invasion would carry huge military, economic, and diplomatic costs whereas China prefers gradual pressure and political subversion over a declared war. China is likely to continue hybrid and psychological warfare tactics.
The US has affirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s security through military presence in the region and arms sales. Where the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but it would likely intervene Chinese attempt of a military takeover.
China has a modernised military might but invading Taiwan would be one of the most complex military operations in history, needing enormous superiority in air, sea and land. Since Taiwan has fortified itself heavily which can lead to adverse effects.
Any military action would lead to economic sanctions from the West, potentially weakening China’s economy and impacting global supply chains of several essentials to the world.
Outlook
Expanding military patrols by the PLA surrounding Taiwan over the Lunar New Year 2025 highlight a calculated attempt to support China’s territorial claims and show its preparedness for armed intervention as and when it is required. Against the background of growing regional military operations and changing alliances, these events underline the fragility of cross-strait relations and the more general geopolitical difficulties in the Asia-Pacific. Shortly it’s expected to be continued, particularly in response to US-Taiwan engagements. Where China may increase “grey-zone” activities, such as blockades, cyber warfare, and proxy economic sanctions. Whereas Taiwan may seek improved commitment from allies like the US, Australia, and Japan.
Neighbouring nations and world powers remain alert, attentively observing the situation for possible consequences on regional stability and international security as China keeps projecting its military might. The PLA’s growing presence close to Taiwan during the Lunar New Year is a geopolitical statement rather than just a military drill. Although conflict is not near, speculations can raise the risk, hence cross-strait stability becomes a major concern for both regional and world security. China may consider military action, contingent upon its assessment that a swift victory is achievable without extended US involvement.